Part 5: 2018 Part Newport Bermuda Race

Weather and Navigation

Finally, we are at the point where the Chris Cannon’s 63’ Alden Verissimo is in the water.  The first shake down cruise off Newport was successful, the crew has begun to get acclimated to the improvements completed over the past winter and everyone is looking forward to the start on June 15.  Now comes the most important element of the race prep, the strategy.  The initial steps began several months ago reviewing the navigational equipment including electronics. By now instrumentation including water temp sensors, GPS, AIS, Chart plotters, barometer, VHF, and Sat phone have been calibrated and synchronized.  The shakedown cruise in early May did not indicate any issues with the current equipment.

It is interesting to note that it was not until the 1980’s that electronics were allowed in the Bermuda race from start to finish.  One might think, considering the level and sophistication of today’s electronics and weather data, the job of the navigator would be relatively comfortable.  On the contrary, most of today’s racers are equipped with the same array of state of the art equipment and the truly competitive boats are the ones with the most skillful navigators as we will learned is the case on Verissimo.

The Newport Bermuda Race is often thought of as three races in one.  The start to get out to the Gulf Stream approximately 200 nautical miles out in the middle of the ocean, the second requires navigating an always surprising Gulf Stream.  Finally, a dash to find a small island more than 600 miles out to sea.

Again, this year, to handle the navigational duties for this year’s race, Chris chose Dr Robert Ranzenbach who by trade is a naval architect and aeronautical engineer.

The initial phase in strategizing for the NBR is to review the prior performance. In the months before the start of the 2016 Race, forecasts indicated a rather predicable weather picture consistent with prior years.  Unfortunately, many racers were surprised by changes that developed shortly before the start.  Robert and Chris recalled a conversation they had before making the final call about whether to go or stay (as many boats decided not to race!).  Robert said, “before we left on the Bermuda race last time, facing an uncertain weather forecast, we had agreed to continuously assess the conditions to ensure that we experienced only two things SAFETY and FUN. This flexible strategy was the prudent choice since numerous weather forecasts would remain extremely uncertain for the first 24 hours of the race. If the weather held they were good.  But after the start, if everything went to “custard”, they would be able download updated weather information and decide, if necessary, to turn around before the Gulf Stream crossing.  It would be disappointing, but they would have quite an enjoyable sail back to Newport. The ability to use the technology to learn more about the impending weather circumstances, knowing the strength of the crew, and the integrity of the yacht, it was an easy decision.

Perhaps the lesson learned here is rather than hoping things would turn out “ok”, it was a carefully measured approach (Robert’s trademark saying is “Hope is not a strategy”).  Robert ensured that the crew did more than have fun and keep everyone safe. He navigated a course for Verissimo to cross the finish 12 seconds ahead of the nearest competitor in their division, a Frers 84, and as a result Verissimo was awarded the Herbert L. Stone Memorial Trophy for the first boat in the cruising division to finish.

The final strategy preparation is almost complete with Navigator Robert Ranzenbach, Co-tacticians Mike Keyworth and Dave Flynn along with owner Chris Cannon. There are some long sessions reviewing the prior race to focus on the weather changes and how they reacted at the time.  Was there an alternative that might have given their boat an advantage?  Chris and navigation team are looking at weather maps from early May which are showing patterns consistent with last year at this time.  Are these consistent with other models?

The Verissimo team subscribes to pre-race routing advice from Commander’s Weather out of Bedford, MA to include weather and Gulf Stream influences. This helps put context to the GRIB wind forecasting files which will be used later.  It’s also assists Robert to determine what future weather models might be more reliable for the race.

The NBR Notice to Race does not permit racers to receive outside advice or use outside routing tools, however, “information freely available to all boats even if that information is only accessible at a cost” is allowed. Robert has subscribed to two services: Squid and PredictWind. Using the data capability of the satellite system onboard Verissimo, these services provide timely high resolution European and US weather models (as well as the specialized PredictWind models) on a scheduled basis. This information plus Gulf Stream conditions is used within Expedition software to recalculate an optimal course throughout the race at every forecast update (multiple times per day).

As if this was not enough data analysis, this year Robert is trying something new (he has realized sleep was overrated!). New this year will be “Model Accuracy” which is provided as part of their subscription to Commander’s Weather. This software allows a navigator to compare observed conditions stored in the boat’s log to conditions previously predicted by various weather models. In this way, helping the Navigator to pick the most appropriate model for the next update to the optimal course.

Robert’s job is not merely to ensure Verissimo stays on course.  He is very aware of boat speed, remembering the 2016 NBR margin of 12 seconds at the finish.  In very light conditions, he is a big fan of keeping the boat moving at top speed even if that requires some deviation from what might be an “optimal” course. He explained, ”because of my background as a trimmer, I am carefully monitoring the boat is sailing at peak performance by comparing actual and predicted speed (information available to the crew at all times) and prodding the team when performance needs to improve”.

With all of this information, Robert carefully calibrates a strategy to avoid chasing too much craziness. Robert believes that constant communication with Chris, Mike, and David complement the flexible strategy to help optimize Verissimo’s performance.

The 2018 NBR start is set for 1300 hours on June 15 and there are a few more details to take care of before Verissimo is ready to go!

This entry was posted on March 1, 2020 by James Frayer.